Chapter 9 · pp. 262–299
The Great Depression
This chapter explains how the stock market crash of 1929 grew into the worst economic crisis in US history. It covers the causes of the Depression, Herbert Hoover's limited response, the human suffering of ordinary families, and the migrations, protests, and political change that followed. It then shows how Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal reshaped the role of the federal government.
A Self-Feeding Downward Cycle
The Depression kept making itself worse. When people stopped borrowing and spending, stores sold less. They cut prices, and when lower prices still did not bring in enough buyers, they fired workers to save money. Workers who lost their paychecks could buy even less, so shops cut prices and jobs again (p. 262).
By about four years after the crash, nearly one in four people who wanted work could not find any, which is about 25 percent unemployment. Most of those who did have jobs worked only part-time. Farm prices fell so low that harvesting some crops cost more than the crops were worth, so food rotted in the fields while people went hungry (pp. 262, 266).
The Crash and Its Deeper Causes
The crash began on Thursday, October 24, 1929. About 10billionininvestmentsvanishedwithinhours.Leadingbankerspooledmoneytobuystocksandsteadyprices,butthecalmlastedonlybriefly.On"BlackTuesday,"October29,thefallresumed.USSteelsharesdroppedfrom262 to 22,andGeneralMotorsfellfrom73 to $8 (pp. 263–264).
A common misconception is that the crash alone caused the Depression. Only about 2.5 percent of Americans owned stocks, so most people lost nothing directly. The crash mattered because it exposed weaknesses already in the economy. Combined with panic, those weaknesses pulled the country down (p. 264).
Three weaknesses stand out:
- Inequality. From 1920 to 1929, per capita income rose 10 percent for all Americans but 75 percent for the richest. Low taxes, easy credit, and low interest rates helped wealthy investors, who spent on luxuries and stock speculation. Ordinary families lacked the buying power to keep demand strong (pp. 264–265).
- Market saturation. The 1920s boom depended on durable goods such as cars and radios. By the late 1920s, most people who could afford a car already owned one. Unsold goods piled up, factories cut output, and firms laid off workers, which reduced demand even more. Automation also eliminated jobs, and unemployment stayed near 7 percent all decade (pp. 265–266).
- Farm collapse. Farmers were struggling long before 1929. Crop prices fell in 1920–1921 after wartime demand faded, and worn-out soil added to the problem. Farmers could not repay loans taken out in better years, so rural banks tightened credit. By 1929 farm families were already in a weak position (p. 266).
Tariffs, Panic, and the Federal Reserve
Policy mistakes deepened the slide. Hoover had promised higher tariffs to protect farmers and boost domestic buying. In 1930 he signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, the highest in US history, just as world markets were weakening. Other countries answered with their own tariffs. International trade fell from 36billionto12 billion between 1929 and 1932, and American exports dropped 78 percent (p. 266).
Panic added another blow. To curb speculation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and tightened credit. Banks then refused loans and demanded repayment of old ones. Frightened customers rushed to withdraw their savings (pp. 266–267).
This produced a chain reaction, shown below:
- Unemployed workers and struggling farmers defaulted on loans.
- Banks lost income and some closed.
- Closures caused panic among depositors.
- Depositors ran to withdraw their money, even from sound banks.
- More banks closed, and the cycle repeated.
About 1,352 banks failed in 1930 and nearly 2,300 in 1932. Their failure erased savings and cut off credit (pp. 263, 266–267).
Hoover's Response
Hoover first treated the crash as an ordinary "bust" in the usual boom-bust cycle, and he kept predicting recovery. In 1930 he told an audience that the depression was over. Yet within months, new car registrations fell by almost a quarter, and spending on durable goods dropped by a fifth in 1930. His optimism could not keep up with the facts (pp. 266–267).
His other remedies were higher tariffs, immigration limits, "sound money," and public statements of confidence. None restored spending, lending, or jobs (p. 263).
Hoover's thinking rested on associationalism: the belief that businesses, charities, and local groups would cooperate voluntarily to solve economic problems. He feared that direct government aid would weaken people's work ethic. So he asked business leaders to keep up jobs and investment, and he created the President's Organization for Unemployment Relief (POUR) to coordinate private charity (pp. 267–269).
This approach failed because the need was far too large. By mid-1932, a quarter of New York's private charities had closed for lack of money. In Atlanta, relief groups could give needy families only $1.30 a week. Detroit officials said the city could not prevent hunger using its own resources (pp. 268, 271).
In 1932, Hoover made one major exception to his limited-government views. He created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) to make emergency loans to banks, railroads, and other businesses. The RFC aided industry and finance, not jobless individuals. Congressman Fiorello La Guardia mocked it as a "millionaire's dole" (p. 269).
The 1932 Election
In the 1932 presidential race, Hoover, a Republican, warned that reckless experimenters would wreck the Constitution. His main target was the Democratic nominee, New York governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, who promised a "New Deal." Voters chose Roosevelt in a landslide. That result began a lasting change in what Americans expected from the federal government (pp. 263, 266, 268).
How Families Used Up Their Resources
Families facing joblessness usually ran out of resources in stages. A New York City official described the pattern in 1932. First, a jobless breadwinner spends any savings. Next, he borrows from friends and relatives until they cannot help more. Then grocers and butchers extend credit, and landlords hold off on collecting rent. Families also took in boarders or "doubled up" with relatives in tenements, and some skipped meals or stopped paying utility bills (pp. 270–271).
When all of this was gone, people who had never been poor had to ask for public aid. But public aid and private charity were already overwhelmed, as Detroit's example shows (pp. 270–271).
Hardship at the Bottom: Hoovervilles, Women, and Black Workers
By 1932 public aid and private charity were running dry. A Detroit official warned that the city could not prevent widespread hunger with its own money. Its work plan for 11,000 families had collapsed because there was no cash to pay the workers (p. 271).
The longest-unemployed Americans built Hoovervilles. These were shantytowns that sprang up in cities on public or marginal land. The name blamed President Hoover for the misery. Residents survived on bread lines and by selling small items on street corners (p. 271). The veterans' camp in Washington in 1932 was also called a Hooverville (p. 276).
The Depression did not hurt everyone equally. Women often suffered more than men because of a common belief that jobs belonged to male breadwinners. Employers hesitated to hire married women and often fired those already working, assuming they did not need the pay. This belief ignored reality, since poor women and children had always worked to survive. Women alone and out of work also faced a greater risk of sexual violence, and many relied on one another for protection (p. 271).
Black Americans were hit even harder. They were usually the last hired and the first fired. In 1932, when about 25 percent of all workers were jobless, Black unemployment reached as high as 50 percent. Black workers who kept their jobs often saw their low wages cut sharply. A National Urban League study suggested that employers used this practice to reduce white unemployment, whatever the cost to Black workers (pp. 271–272).
The Dust Bowl and People on the Move
The Dust Bowl was the part of the Great Plains ruined by drought and dust storms from about 1932 to 1936. Farmers had plowed up the natural ground cover that held the soil, and the area had been spared trouble only because earlier decades were wet. When the rains stopped, the exposed topsoil dried into dust. With no sod or trees to slow the wind, huge storms darkened the sky and killed livestock. They even dropped dirt on Washington, D.C., and on ships in the Atlantic. The disaster showed, too late, how much the land needed conservation (p. 272).
Drought was only part of the story. Farmers in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas already faced foreclosures and falling crop prices. Many saw California as their one hope, with its harvests and possible farm work. The result was a mass exodus. Oklahoma alone lost 440,000 people, or 18.4 percent of its 1930 population (p. 272).
Photographer Dorothea Lange captured this movement in Migrant Mother (1936). She took the picture for the Farm Security Administration at a farmworker camp in Nipomo, California. It shows a worn, worried woman, originally from Oklahoma, holding an infant while two older children lean on her. The image came to stand for the nation's struggle (pp. 272–273).
The westward migrants were scornfully nicknamed "Okies" by their new neighbors. They were only the most visible travelers. By 1932, sociologists estimated that millions of men were riding freight cars or hitching rides in search of work. Popular culture took notice. The film Wild Boys of the Road (1933) and John Steinbeck's novel The Grapes of Wrath (1939, a film in 1940) portrayed these uprooted people (pp. 273–274).
The Depression also brought the first significant reversal of the rural-to-urban trend. Thousands of people left jobless cities for the countryside. Many states and towns then tried to keep poor newcomers out. Some made it a crime to bring poor migrants into the state, and officials could deport them to neighboring states. In 1935–1936, California, Florida, and Colorado set up "border blockades" (p. 274).
Sympathy for migrants grew only late in the decade. The Grapes of Wrath drew attention to their plight, and in 1940 Congress formed a committee to study the interstate migration of destitute citizens. Real relief came from somewhere else. As World War II began, defense industries needed workers, and the migrant "problem" became a labor shortage (p. 275).
Closing the Door: Immigration Limits and Mexican Repatriation
Many Americans feared that foreign workers would accept even lower wages. In September 1930, the Hoover administration told consuls abroad to deny visas to anyone "likely to become public charges." That could cover most foreign laborers and artisans. European visas fell about 60 percent. From 1930 to 1932, 54,000 people were deported and another 44,000 left "voluntarily" (p. 275).
Mexicans and Mexican Americans were hit hardest. Many had come north during the Mexican Revolution and found jobs in the booming farms and industries of the Southwest. Officials there used harassment, intimidation, and armed "street sweeps." These sweeps deported few people directly, but they were meant to frighten families into leaving (p. 275). In Los Angeles, a citizens' committee worked with federal officials on raids. County charities pushed people on relief to go and arranged cheap rail fares to Mexico. Repatriation trains also left from San Antonio, Detroit, and New York (p. 276).
Roosevelt's administration stopped some of Hoover's harshest practices, but jobs were scarce and hostility continued. Over the decade, more people left the United States than entered. The census shows the Mexican-born population of Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas dropping from about 617,000 in 1930 to about 377,000 in 1940. Scholars estimate that roughly one million Mexicans were pushed out overall, including many children who were US citizens by birth (p. 276).
The Bonus Army and Hoover's Fall
In summer 1932, more than 15,000 unemployed World War I veterans and their families came to Washington. They wanted their bonuses, due in 1945, paid right away. They camped at Anacostia Flats, drilled, and marched as the "Bonus Army." Hoover worried about the budget and opposed the bill, and the Senate voted it down. When thousands stayed anyway, Hoover ordered them out. General Douglas MacArthur led soldiers, tanks, and tear gas against the camp and burned it. Two marchers and a baby died (pp. 276–277).
Newsreels showed the attack, and the public was shocked. Hoover was not personally to blame for the Depression. But his ideology could not meet a crisis this large, and his repeated promises of returning prosperity sank his presidency (p. 278).
Roosevelt and the Start of the New Deal
Franklin D. Roosevelt came from a wealthy New York family. Polio left him paralyzed in 1921, but he returned to politics and became governor in 1928. In 1931 he argued that helping the jobless was a "social duty," not charity. His Temporary Emergency Relief Administration (TERA) gave public-works jobs and food, shelter, and clothing, and it soon reached 10 percent of the state's families (pp. 278–279). Among his advisors was Frances Perkins, New York's labor commissioner. She won laws for safer workplaces and less child labor, and she later became the first female secretary of labor (p. 280).
Accepting the Democratic nomination on July 1, 1932, Roosevelt promised "a new deal for the American people." Editors turned the phrase into the name of his program. It called for jobs and public works, higher wages, old-age pensions, unemployment insurance, farm subsidies, bank regulation, and lower tariffs. Hoover called the plan un-American and compared it to communism, but voters rejected his warnings and Roosevelt won in a landslide (p. 280).
At his March 4, 1933 inauguration, Roosevelt said the only thing to fear was "fear itself." He relied on a group of academic experts called the "Brain Trust." Later, the Twentieth Amendment moved inauguration day to January 20. His calm words were backed by quick action (p. 280).
The first target was the banks. Two of every five banks open in 1929 had closed. Roosevelt declared a bank holiday and pushed the Emergency Banking Act through Congress. On March 12 he gave the first "Fireside Chat" by radio, explaining the new safeguards and asking people to trust the banks. They did, and deposits exceeded withdrawals (pp. 280–281). In June, the Glass-Steagall Banking Act created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to insure deposits. It also separated commercial banking from investment banking. Insurance means savers have less reason to panic and rush to withdraw their money, as they had in 1930–1932 (p. 281).
Selling the New Deal: Fireside Chats
Fireside Chats were Roosevelt's relaxed, personal radio talks to the public. The first aired on March 12, 1933, the night before some banks reopened under stricter federal rules. In it he described the new banking safeguards and asked people to trust banks with their savings again. Americans listened, and across the country deposits grew faster than withdrawals. That showed the talk worked. (p. 281)
Roosevelt kept giving these talks through four terms. He used them to explain New Deal laws, build confidence in government action, and win public support. Because many Americans heard the president speak directly in their homes, he could build backing without relying only on newspapers. (p. 281)
The First Hundred Days: Relief and Development
Fixing the banks was only the first step. During the rest of the First Hundred Days, Roosevelt and Congress turned to relief for suffering Americans. Congress debated and passed what he proposed, because the crisis seemed to demand fast action, even though some people doubted that many of the actions were constitutional. (p. 281)
Several agencies came out of this period:
- Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC): employed young men on conservation and reforestation work.
- Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA): gave cash aid to state relief agencies that were struggling to care for the unemployed.
- Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA): built hydroelectric dams on the Tennessee River as part of a plan to develop a region that had long been poor.
- Other agencies helped home and farm owners refinance their mortgages so they could keep their property. (p. 281)
Stabilizing Farms and Industry: The AAA and NRA
The core of the early recovery plan was two huge efforts to steady and coordinate the economy. (p. 281)
The AAA. The Agricultural Adjustment Administration, created in May 1933, tried to raise crop prices, and so farm income. It paid farmers cash to voluntarily grow less. The reasoning is simple supply and demand: when supply falls, prices rise. For example, if farmers plow under some cotton and leave fields idle, less cotton reaches the market and each bale sells for more. Prices did rise, but the benefits went mostly to landowners. (pp. 281, 284)
The NRA. The National Industrial Recovery Act of June 1933 created the National Recovery Administration. It suspended antitrust laws so firms in an industry could write "codes" that coordinated prices, limited production, and set working conditions. The goal was to end "cutthroat competition," where firms slash prices and wages to survive. In return, businesses promised reasonable wages and hours, no child labor, and workers' right to unionize. Firms that cooperated displayed the NRA's Blue Eagle. (pp. 281–282)
Putting People to Work: CWA, WPA, and PWA
These programs helped, and output (GDP) began to climb again. But unemployment stayed very high, even after dropping from its 1933 peak. So the New Deal tried to create jobs directly. (p. 282)
- The Civil Works Administration (CWA) and later the Works Progress Administration (WPA) hired jobless men and women for projects that local governments proposed.
- The Public Works Administration (PWA) gave grants to local governments for big infrastructure, such as bridges, tunnels, schools, and libraries. It also funded the first federal public housing. (p. 282)
Together they produced lasting public works and gave jobs to millions. (p. 282)
The New Deal in the South
A region already poor. In 1929 the Southeast had the lowest per capita income in the nation, only 365.Southernfarmersaveraged183 a year, while West Coast farmers earned over four times that. Cotton and corn wore out the soil and paid less and less. Southern industry was low-wage and low-skill. Southern workers earned 75 percent of what nonsouthern textile workers made, 60 percent for iron and steel workers, and just 45 percent for lumber workers. (p. 282)
The AAA's harm to tenants. Roosevelt hoped to stop cotton's price slide by cutting the land planted in it. Farmers left fields empty and prices rose. But the government let landowners and local groups share the payments. Many owners evicted tenants and sharecroppers, kept the subsidy checks, and bought machines, which cut the need for farm labor even more. The program thus pushed landless farmworkers off the land instead of making farming profitable for them. (p. 284)
Labor measures. Other policies helped southern workers. The NRA began to curb child labor in mills. In 1934 textile workers in the Piedmont struck over low pay and long hours, and owners used local and state authorities and thousands of strikebreakers (often displaced farmers) to crush the strike. Starting in 1935, the National Labor Relations Act protected most workers' right to unionize and bargain. The 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act set a minimum wage of 0.25anhour,later0.40. This raised the lowest southern wages the most and moved them closer to northern levels. Union members came to see Roosevelt as their protector. (p. 284)
The TVA. Probably the New Deal's most successful southern program, the TVA used dams for flood control and cheap electricity in areas without power. Its agents also offered training and classes to improve farming and prepare people for new jobs. It reflected Roosevelt's aim to lift up the South and connect it to the national economy. (pp. 284–285)
Roosevelt and southern Democrats. At first Roosevelt courted conservative southern Democrats, because he needed their votes. That meant the South's racial and economic inequalities stayed in place. By the end of his second term he had enough support outside the South to take them on. He endorsed a report on southern economic conditions and called the region "the Nation's No. 1 economic problem." (p. 285)
Voices of Protest
Roosevelt's early programs were fairly cautious. He stayed within normal presidential powers and avoided reshaping the basic economic system, unlike some European nations that turned to state-run economies, socialism, or fascism. From 1934, critics said he had not gone far enough, and he had to respond. (p. 285)
Huey Long. This Louisiana senator proposed Share Our Wealth. The government would take the assets of the very rich and redistribute them through guaranteed minimum incomes. More than 27,000 clubs formed. Long was assassinated in late 1935, but his challenge pushed Roosevelt to attack inequality more forcefully. (pp. 286–287)
Francis Townsend and Charles Coughlin. Townsend, a California doctor, promoted old-age pensions. He argued they would help the elderly poor and open jobs as older workers retired. Coughlin, a Michigan radio priest, attacked Roosevelt for working with bankers, used antisemitic rhetoric, and called for a more state-driven economy. Both built large followings. (p. 287)
Opposition from the right. By late 1934, business-friendly Republicans objected to federal regulation and spending on public works. Some southern Democrats turned against programs that challenged the region's order. The biggest obstacle was the Supreme Court, filled with conservative appointees. On May 27, 1935, called "Black Monday" by supporters, it unanimously struck down the NRA in a poultry-processing case. The AAA was struck down in early 1936. (p. 287)
The Second New Deal: A Bolder Wave (1935\u20131936)\n\nBy 1935 Roosevelt was under pressure from two sides. Critics on the left said he had not done enough, and conservatives and the Supreme Court were pushing back. The Democrats had also won large majorities in the 1934 midterms, and Roosevelt faced reelection in 1936. He responded with a set of bolder laws known as the Second New Deal. It included work relief, labor protections, Social Security, a more progressive income tax, new reporting rules for public companies, refinancing of home mortgages, and rural reconstruction projects meant to raise farm incomes closer to city incomes. (pp. 287\u2013288)\n\nThe Works Progress Administration (WPA). Founded in 1935 with a nearly five-billion-dollar appropriation, the WPA was a permanent version of the earlier CWA. Its aim was to hire as many people as possible, as fast as possible. WPA crews paved over half a million miles of road and built thousands of bridges, schools, and post offices. Some workers painted murals or recorded oral histories. The WPA came closer than any other New Deal program to the federal jobs guarantee Roosevelt had promised in 1932. (p. 288)\n\n### Labor Gains: The Wagner Act, Flint, and the Minimum Wage\n\nWhen the Supreme Court struck down the NRA, workers lost the union protections it had offered. The National Labor Relations Act (Wagner Act) of 1935 replaced them. For the first time, federal law protected workers who organized unions and bargained collectively. Union membership surged. John L. Lewis of the United Mine Workers led the founding of the CIO, which broke away from the craft-focused AFL. (p. 288)\n\nThe Flint sit-down strike of 1937 shows the law at work. Auto workers in the UAW did not walk out of a General Motors plant in Flint, Michigan. They stayed inside and occupied it until management agreed to negotiate. GM then recognized the union and raised pay. That success gave the UAW legitimacy, and unionization spread quickly across the auto industry. (p. 288)\n\nThe Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 came three years after the Wagner Act. With support from Roosevelt and Labor Secretary Frances Perkins, it created the modern minimum wage, set at 0.25anhourandlaterraisedto0.40. Because pay was lowest in the South, the law helped southern workers the most and narrowed the gap with northern wages. (pp. 284, 288)\n\n### Social Security and Its Limits\n\nThe Social Security Act of 1935 was the best-known piece of the Second New Deal. Perkins championed it. It set up old-age pensions and unemployment insurance, plus aid based on need for the elderly and for dependent children. Roosevelt insisted that payroll contributions fund it rather than general government revenue. He said "No dole," meaning he wanted to avoid the stigma of charity. That choice made the program politically safer, and it became the centerpiece of the modern welfare state. It also showed that the government now accepted some responsibility for citizens' economic well-being. (pp. 289\u2013290)\n\nThe law left out many people. Its pension program excluded domestic workers and farmworkers, jobs held by a large share of Black workers. Southern politicians feared that economic security would free Black southerners from cheap farm labor, and Roosevelt agreed to drop those occupations. He admitted the law was a "cornerstone" of a structure not yet finished. (pp. 290\u2013292)\n\n### Culture: Federal One\n\nThe WPA also paid artists through four projects called Federal One. The Theater Project employed 40,000 people and staged shows, including children's plays. The Music Project paid for orchestras and free concerts and offered lessons to people like Etta Rich, a housewife who could never afford piano lessons. The Writers Project interviewed elderly former slaves, and those records remain valuable. The Art Project produced over 200,000 public works, such as murals and sculptures. (p. 290)\n\n### Race, Gender, and the Limits of the New Deal\n\nThe Scottsboro case showed the injustice of Jim Crow. In 1931 nine young Black men were pulled off a train in Alabama and falsely accused. Sham trials sent nearly all of them to death row. The International Labor Defense won commuted or reversed sentences on appeal, but the last defendant was not paroled until 1946. The case became a national symbol of racial prejudice. (pp. 290\u2013291)\n\nRoosevelt did little to address racial inequality directly. He feared losing southern Democrats from his New Deal coalition, an uneasy mix of liberals, urban workers, farm workers, and southern whites. He rejected antilynching legislation and poll tax abolition, telling the NAACP he could not take the risk. Some programs also made things worse. NRA codes kept regional pay gaps and exempted farm and domestic work, and the AAA pushed Black tenants off the land. (p. 291)\n\nGender assumptions also shaped policy. Programs assumed men were breadwinners and women were homemakers. This produced a two-tiered welfare state. Women were mostly directed to means-tested, state-run relief, while entitlement benefits went mainly to male workers. Women such as Perkins, Mary McLeod Bethune, and Eleanor Roosevelt held influential roles, but the core inequalities remained. (p. 292)\n\n### The End of the New Deal (1937\u20131939)\n\nRoosevelt won a landslide in 1936 but then hit trouble. Fearing the Court would strike down Social Security, he proposed adding a new justice for each sitting justice over seventy. Critics called this court-packing. The bill failed. The Court did then uphold Social Security, but the fight hurt Roosevelt and encouraged his opponents. (pp. 292\u2013293)\n\nIn 1937 he also cut spending, believing recovery was secure. The economy fell back nearly to its 1932\u20131933 depths, a downturn called the Roosevelt Recession. He then turned to the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, which called for countercyclical deficit spending. The idea is that when private demand is weak, government should spend more, even if the budget goes into deficit. The recession and court-packing helped conservatives gain in the 1938 midterms, and worry about war in Europe pulled attention away from reform. (p. 293)\n\n### Legacy and Debate\n\nBefore the New Deal, the national government was a "government out of sight." Afterward, people saw it as an ally in finding work, earning fair wages, getting good farm prices, and organizing unions. Newly mobilized voters stayed loyal to the Democratic Party into the 1960s. (p. 293)\n\nHistorians disagree about when the New Deal ended. Some point to the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act. Others count wartime price and rent controls and the G.I. Bill. Still others describe a lasting "New Deal order" of ideas, policies, and alliances that shaped politics through the Great Society and still shapes debates today. (pp. 293\u2013294)\n\n### Check yourself\n\n1. Explain how the Depression fed on itself in a downward cycle, and why the stock market crash alone did not cause it.\n2. Why did Hoover's approach of associationalism and voluntary charity fail to meet the need, and what did the Reconstruction Finance Corporation try to do?\n3. How did the Wagner Act, the Flint sit-down strike, and the Fair Labor Standards Act each strengthen workers?\n4. Why did Social Security leave out so many Black workers, and how did Roosevelt's concern for his New Deal coalition affect other policies on race?\n5. What caused the 1937 recession, and how did Keynesian thinking change Roosevelt's response?